Ou Virak's interview with ABC radio

An insight into Hun Sen's realpolitik
Speaking with Radio Australia's Asia Pacific, Virak Ou of the Cambodian Centre for Human Rights has explained the recent confusion surrounding the arrest and subsequent release of human rights activists and government critics. Yes, we have heard apparently contradictory statements from Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, but they are not as confusing as I first thought. Indeed, they make perfect sense.

The tide can change according to whatever Hun Sen wants and he still wants to silence the activists. And keeping the charges is one of the best tools for him at the moment. Certainly the situation has not been improved a whole lot but I think we have to understand that court is under the control of the one man and most of the power is in control of one man. So we are still very very concerned, that our ability to work for the protection of human rights as well as for a just society. It's going to be difficult and we're going to face many obstacles...

What happened was that under much pressure from the international community as well as the Cambodian people themselves Hun Sen was feeling that he needed to make some statement, needed to release them, and drop the charges so that [way] he can please the Cambodian people and the international community and to make the situation seem quieter. But then he realised that he also needed to keep the activists silent and from working, from demanding and from spreading the people's democracy and I think the Centre for Human Rights particularly is very essential, especially before the 2007, 2008 elections...

In Cambodia, it's almost like a dance, it's going back and forth. Usually, the situation gets a little better before the meeting and then after the donors' meeting, it will go back to square one. My guess is that the situation is going to remain calm before the donors' meeting, before the CG meeting, but after that, that's when my concern is. The situation could get worse, and the ball is always in the Prime Minister's hands.

Lessons? Well, one is that Cambodian politics today is as complex as it has ever been. (I have spent some time studying Indonesian politics - perhaps it's time I dug out a couple of decent texts on Cambodia politics.) A second is that international pressure, seemingly successful at first, can be readily accommodated by Phnom Penh where necessary; longer term, it's value is dubious. A third is that human rights activists in Cambodia at this time, like activists elsewhere, are a rare and courageous breed.